Saturday, November 27, 2004
I don't blog much about the economy (except on the micro, things-I've-noticed Andy Rooney level) because I don't think I know enough.I'm not going to quote the rest of his statement, because I don't think he will want that part remembered. Generally, as David Tice of The Prudent Bear says, there is a complacency about the USD. We've been through these ups and downs before, why in 1995, the USD was this low and then went up 50%. We've been through the crash of the Ruble, the Peso and most recently the Asian currency crisis and we've muddled through (I'm paraphrasing). So what is different this time? Tice says:
But I fear the worst: the Fed is immersed in a trap of runaway Credit and asset inflation. Global players – including central banks – are coming to recognize there is no way out. Almost anything non-dollar is viewed as a superior store of value to investors and the massive speculating community. And perhaps others see dollar vulnerability as a potential countervailing force to aggressive U.S. foreign policies. Things don’t look good Mr. Dollar. Confidence is faltering, financial fragilities provide little room for error, and I fear we have passed the point where a dollar crisis is unavoidable.And you say, Mover Mike why do you blog about these things? Few read them, fewer comment! Someday, there will be a lot of finger pointing, and blame shifting, and we will be required to build a new currency. We can't make the same mistakes again. Our Founding Fathers warned us about fiat currencies and our Constitution prohibited these practices, yet we allowed it to happen, anyway. Our progeny deserve better.
I wish you the best in what will likely be a difficult and tumultuous period. And I do sincerely hope you can muster all your strength and surprise us with your resiliency. It certainly didn’t have to be this way. I hope the Greenspan Fed (and the “inflationists”) will be held accountable. Too much lunacy has been spoken and written, while the scourge of financial folly worked furtively to destroy you. The world’s preeminent currency was a terrible, terrible thing to waste. There will be huge costs to pay, and I’m saddened and sorry it happened.