Monday, February 14, 2005


Hockeystick Broke & Compound Interest

Today, in the WSJ:

In Climate Debate,The 'Hockey Stick'Leads to a Face-Off

But is the hockey stick true?

According to a semiretired Toronto minerals consultant, it's not. After spending two years and about $5,000 of his own money trying to double-check the influential graphic, Stephen McIntyre says he has found significant oversights and errors. He claims its lead author, climatologist Michael Mann of the University of Virginia, and colleagues used flawed methods that yield meaningless results.
My god, Antonio Regalado, what took you so long! Mover Mike posted about this over a month ago.

PS: I emailed Regalado at the WSJ, with my rhetorical question, not expecting a reply. However, I did get this reply after I posted: "You know, I had to call a few people figure it out for myself." Antonio, I appreciate your article and the ok to release his emailed response.

Mover Mike


The U.S. Treasury wants Congress to approve a 13 percent funding boost to cover interest payments on government debt next year as part of its overall request for an increase in funding… The increase would be the highest in at least 18 years and the request comes the same day the White House predicted the federal budget deficit will rise to a record $427 billion in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30., forcing the Treasury to issue government securities to plug the gap. Interest on debt payments will rise an estimated 8.2 percent to $347.9 billion in fiscal 2005, from $321.6 billion last year.”
Mover Mike says a 13.2% increase would boost interest payments alone in fiscal 2006 to $393.13 Billion up from $347.9 Billion. Compounding is the 8th Wonder of the world. We cannot continue this game for a whole lot longer. At just 8% per year compounded, the interest on the federal debt doubles to $800 Billion.

Then we have the Trade Deficit:

Mover Mike

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Mover Mike

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